By Riza T. Olchondra
Philippine Daily Inquirer
DR. CHO-OON Kong
Sherlock Holmes solving crimes in foggy London is such a Western image, but not far removed from that of smog-gray Beijing at midday on Jan. 13, 2013. That the capital of an economy in Asia, the new nexus of global economic development, was covered in thick smog earlier this year warns the next wave of ?tiger economies? such as the Philippines of the risks that development entails.
As such, the Shell Strategy and Scenarios Team, whom political analyst Dr. Cho-Oon Kong refers to as ?window cleaners,? are looking at various possible energy futures and what can be done for more sustainable development.
Surely, even now people realize that energy transition is taking place for reasons of climate change, among others. Over the next few decades, ?We face a range of more turbulent changes, not just in energy but also in economic and geopolitical terms,? Kong said.
The Team has come up with two broad energy scenarios??Mountains? and ?Oceans??based on perceived trends in the economy, politics, and energy as far ahead as 2100.
In the policy-driven Mountains scenario, gas is king. Or at least, it will be dominant by the 2030s over dirtier-burning coal and fossil fuels amid government moves to limit carbon dioxide emissions. Urban planning, moderate economic development, and policy-driven long-term projects could loosen the energy market. A profound shift in the transportation sector sees global demand for oil peaking in about 2035. By the end of the century, cars and trucks powered by electricity and hydrogen could dominate the road.
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